Global Trade Faces a New Reality

The global trading environment is becoming harder to predict, and businesses are having to adapt quickly. According to DMCC’s newly launched Future of Trade 2026 report, companies can expect trade to remain resilient over the next two years, but the factors driving growth and competitiveness are changing.

The report, titled Future of Trade 2026: Rebuilding Through Rupture, highlights how AI, tariff uncertainty, supply chain resilience, and competition for critical minerals and clean energy infrastructure are reshaping international trade.

For SMEs, these shifts present both challenges and opportunities.

A Less Predictable Trade Environment

Businesses today are operating in a more fragmented global market than they were just a few years ago. Nearly 20 percent of global merchandise imports are now affected by tariffs or similar trade restrictions, up from 12.6 percent a year ago.

DMCC’s survey of business leaders found that more than 80 percent expect slow economic growth, ongoing supply chain disruptions, and continued geopolitical uncertainty in the years ahead. Only a small minority believe the global economy will move into a best-case scenario, while some anticipate further escalation of trade tensions, sanctions, and financial fragmentation.

As a result, businesses are increasingly focusing on flexibility and resilience rather than relying solely on efficiency.

AI Is Becoming a Major Driver of Trade Growth

One of the report’s strongest findings is the growing influence of AI on global trade.

Trade in AI-related products such as semiconductors, servers, and data centre equipment grew by more than 20 percent during the first half of 2025. By comparison, non-AI goods grew by less than 4 percent.

Although AI-related products account for only around 15 percent of global trade volumes, they generated 43 percent of total trade growth during the period.

DMCC Executive Chairman and CEO Ahmed Bin Sulayem said the figures demonstrate how competitiveness is increasingly being shaped by technology, connectivity, energy access, and the ability to respond quickly to disruption.

For SMEs, this highlights the importance of looking beyond traditional growth strategies and considering how technology can improve operations and create new opportunities.

The Gap Between AI Leaders and Followers Is Growing

While interest in AI is widespread, adoption remains uneven.

The report found that fewer than 15 percent of businesses have fully integrated AI into their operations, while more than a quarter have yet to implement it in any meaningful way.

As AI systems become capable of handling complex tasks across logistics, compliance, and trade finance, DMCC warns that businesses that delay adoption could face a growing competitive disadvantage.

For smaller businesses, the message is not necessarily to invest heavily overnight, but to identify practical use cases where AI can reduce costs, improve productivity, or streamline routine processes.

Supply Chains Are Being Redesigned for Resilience

The report also points to a significant shift in how businesses manage supply chains.

Many companies are moving away from single-country sourcing models and building broader supplier networks across multiple markets. This trend has accelerated amid geopolitical tensions and disruptions to key trade routes.

Trade data reflects this change. Between 2014 and 2024, U.S. imports from Vietnam increased by 345 percent, while imports from India rose by 94 percent and imports from Mexico grew by 72 percent. During the same period, imports from China declined by 5 percent.

Recent geopolitical events have reinforced the importance of diversification. The report notes that disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz have highlighted how vulnerable global supply chains remain to regional conflicts.

Among businesses surveyed by DMCC, companies pursuing regional and resilience-focused supply chains now significantly outnumber those prioritising purely global, efficiency-driven models.

Clean Energy Is Also Becoming a Trade Issue

The energy transition is no longer only about sustainability. It is increasingly tied to industrial competitiveness and geopolitical influence.

Global clean energy investment reached a record US$2.3 trillion in 2025, exceeding fossil fuel investment. At the same time, countries are competing to secure access to critical minerals needed for electric vehicles, renewable energy technologies, AI infrastructure, and defence systems.

China currently dominates several parts of these supply chains, including the production and refining of many strategic minerals.

For businesses, especially manufacturers and technology firms, access to critical resources is becoming an important consideration in long-term planning.

Trade Finance Is Evolving

Access to finance remains a challenge for many businesses, particularly SMEs.

The global trade finance gap currently stands at US$2.5 trillion, according to the report.

However, new financial technologies are beginning to create alternative options. Stablecoins, tokenisation, and central bank digital currencies are increasingly being explored for cross-border transactions.

DMCC notes that global stablecoin supply surpassed US$300 billion in early 2026, while business-to-business stablecoin payments recorded significant growth during 2025.

While traditional banking remains essential, businesses may see growing opportunities to use digital financial infrastructure in specific trade corridors where speed and cost efficiency are important.

South-South Trade Continues to Grow

Another notable trend is the continued rise of trade between developing economies.

Today, South-South trade accounts for approximately 35 percent of global trade flows and is growing faster than trade between developed economies.

The report highlights countries such as the UAE, India, and Singapore as examples of "connector economies" that are benefiting from diversified trade relationships, infrastructure investments, and their ability to facilitate international commerce.

For SMEs looking to expand internationally, emerging markets may increasingly offer attractive growth opportunities alongside traditional export destinations.

What SMEs Can Do Now

DMCC’s report recommends that businesses focus on five key priorities:

• Build resilience by identifying supplier, route, and market dependencies.

• Expand AI adoption in areas such as logistics, compliance, forecasting, and trade finance.

• Treat data as a strategic asset and prepare for changing data regulations.

• Explore new payment and financing options alongside traditional banking relationships.

• Diversify access to critical inputs such as technology, energy, and raw materials.

The report’s overall message is that global trade is not slowing down, but it is changing. Businesses that invest in resilience, technology, and flexibility are likely to be better positioned to navigate an increasingly complex trading environment.